In your dictionary, the term spoof refers to a hoax, a prank, or a good-humored mocking. In today’s reality that term has implications that are anything but good humored. Spoofing refers to websites that look legitimate, but are not. It is an increasing problem. You...
Strong Start to the Year Markets continued higher in the first quarter, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s policy shift signaling that the next move in interest rates would be downward. With the economy and labor markets demonstrating greater resilience, consensus expectations of a recession or mild...
It was a lackluster start to the year for high quality fixed income with the move higher in US Treasury yields largely negating the tightening in Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads. Amidst generally decent macroeconomic data and a rally in risk assets, expectations for the...
In our 4th quarter Investment Update last year, like many, we acknowledged the challenges heading into 2023, particularly concerning additional rate hikes and the risk that the Federal Reserve could unduly weaken the economy in its campaign to defeat inflation. As our investment strategies focus...
The US Treasury market saw historic volatility in 2023 as uncertainty around inflation and Fed policy resulted in the benchmark 10yr to trade in a wide range from 3.30% to 5%. The Federal Reserve delivered 4 rate hikes of 25bps in 2023, the last of...
Soft landing, hard landing, no landing. What would Wall Street and the investment world do without similes, metaphors, narratives, and tales? When it comes to landings, we think they are better suited for airplanes, not economies. And as for tired metaphors, landings tell us nothing...
“Artificial Intelligence (AI)”, there, we said it. Now to be clear, nothing in this 2nd Quarter Investment Update was generated using ChatGPT or any other Large Language Model (LLM), although we did consult a few. Another Quarter of Positive Stock Market Returns Stocks continued their impressive rebound...
The news of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and accompanying turmoil in the banking sector is worthy of a brief note of explanation and perspective. There will be more that we will know and address in our upcoming quarterly correspondence. Aside from the specifics that...
In a year that finished none too soon for most investors, stocks and bonds managed to wind up 2022 on a positive quarter. While not much consolation to most investors, the markets absorbed a sea change of disruptive news this year. Many of the speculative...
Worries about inflation, rising interest rates, and a contracting economy became more acute as the third quarter came to a dispirited end. Rising bond yields stoked by the Fed’s recommitment to bring down inflation weighed heavily on stock and bond prices. Heightened aggression in Ukraine...
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